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Dear Colleagues,

Happy New Year!  I hope you had a peaceful and restful holiday break.  As we prepare for the Spring semester, I am writing to resume our discussion about Forward-Focused Digital Transformation (FFDT) and highlight a few recent achievements.

During the Fall semester, President Hemphill and I met with numerous groups to discuss FFDT, answer questions, and listen to concerns. Alongside the opportunity to engage in meaningful discussions, those meetings led to critical changes in processes and communication efforts, including:

• Allowing faculty to choose between stipends and course releases for redevelopment work
• Extending the deadline for catalog changes
• Scheduling subsequent meetings between leadership and faculty governance groups

Our discussions with the faculty senate and members of the AAUP were especially productive. President Hemphill has scheduled multiple Spring meetings to foster ongoing dialogue with the senate executive committee and invited the AAUP to have him back in the Spring.

Prior to sending his holiday greetings message on December 20th, President Hemphill shared with faculty articles from Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Ratings, and S&P Global Ratings that predicted “.”  He ended that note reiterating the need for change and commending the great work that all of you have done.

That message was apparently not well received by some. Among other critiques, it was implied that we are manufacturing an enrollment crisis and that we are somewhat insulated from demographic and economic factors given that the decline in Virginia’s high school enrollment will be less than in other states and Virginia is currently on solid financial footing. I’m not convinced that these potential mitigating factors make us immune to the demographic, economic, political, technological, and social forces that are shaping higher education across the country. Rather, I see these forces as akin to an automobile’s “check engine light.”

An exchange between Sheldon and Penny on the award-winning Big Bang Theory comes to mind:

Sheldon: If you recall, I pointed out the check engine light to you several months ago.

Penny: The check engine light is fine, it's still blinking away. It's the stupid engine that stopped working.

While some have characterized leadership’s response as a hyperbolic “the sky is falling” response, I believe we should heed the “check engine light,” as there are areas of significant concern that we must address proactively. Consider the following:

• In Fall 2014, we enrolled 24,934 students.  In Fall 2025, we enrolled 22,368 students at 91��Ƭ�� (excluding the medical campus).
• These enrollment drops occurred on-campus and were partially offset by increases in online enrollments.  In Fall 2014, we enrolled 21,912 on-campus students and 3,022 online students.  By Fall 2025, on-campus enrollment dropped to 15,156 while online enrollment increased to 7,212.
• In 2016-2017, we awarded 5,280 degrees.  In 2023-2024, we awarded 4,743 degrees.
• In 2016, our retention rate for first-time full-time students was 82%.  This dropped to 72% in Fall 2021 and was at 79% this past fall.
• Our 53% six-year graduation rate in 2015 fell to 46% by 2024.
• In 2014, 91��Ƭ�� had four programs on SCHEV’s program productivity review list.  We now have 21 programs on the list. This list captures degree programs that do not meet SCHEV’s enrollment or degree production expectations. Note that the same expectations were in place in 2014 that are currently in place.

Notably, because enrollment and degree production at 91��Ƭ�� dropped by 10%, while the number of high school graduates in Virginia increased by 14%., one would expect that the future decline in Virginia’s high school graduates will disproportionately impact 91��Ƭ��. Research by analysts from S&P supports the prediction that, absent significant changes, future enrollment drops will .

We are not immune from other external factors either.  Across the country,  between 2024 and 2025 resulted in an estimated $18 billion in economic losses. Some have wondered whether the fact that we have fewer international students than larger institutions will minimize the impact of the decline in enrollment of international students. We enrolled 88 fewer international students in 2025 than 2024, which represented an 11.6% drop in international student enrollment and an estimated loss of $2,437,212. The potential increase in competition for a smaller pool of international students within the state could translate to more significant reductions in enrollment and financial losses.

Changes to student funding will also create issues for all higher education institutions. Prohibitions on federal support for select academic programs, the elimination of Grad PLUS loans, and lower limits on the federal loans for graduate students are all cause for concern. , a fellow from the Century Foundation, cites data suggesting that 10% of graduate nonprofessional students and 29% of graduate professional students borrowed more in 2019-2020 than the new limits will allow. These students would need to turn to private loans, which leads Granville to conclude, “.” While the ultimate impact of these changes remains uncertain, efforts are underway to minimize their impact. At 91��Ƭ��, excluding the medical school, we had 171 students receiving Grad PLUS loans last year.  In addition, if the national estimates hold, we can expect that 750 additional graduate students will be impacted by the new caps on federal loans.

External pressures like changes in research support, accreditation options, and inflation need to be addressed as well. In terms of research, we have had $10.25 million cut in federal funding. While we have not felt the effect of restricted overhead cost recoveries, we must prepare for those drops. Consider that our indirect cost recoveries generated by funded research increased from $8.2 million in 2014 to $10.2 million in 2024. Those funds help to run our research enterprise. Though cuts to overhead will be higher for larger research institutions, make no mistake about it – we will feel the impact of less overhead recovery. In fact, last fall, Vice President for Research and Economic Development Ken Fridley made the case to the U.S. Office of Management and Budget that such cuts will be more severe for institutions like 91��Ƭ��. Depending on the final decisions about overhead recoveries, we will need to adjust accordingly.

Accreditation is also changing higher education. Institutions must be accredited by an approved accreditor to receive Title IV funding. Clashes between SACSCOC and some state policy makers resulted in laws across the south that required institutions to change accreditors every five to ten years. Shortly after those laws were passed,  to create a new accreditation body – the Commission for Public Higher Education.  suggested that it would cost $11-13 million a year to move to a new accreditor during the transition period. Our accreditation is in place until 2033 and there is no expectation that Virginia will follow suit in requiring a new accreditor, but we must monitor these policy headwinds. Should the public institutions from these six states fully leave SACSCOC, that would leave just five states fully affiliated with the accreditor. Equally of interest is , the Accreditation Choice and Innovation Act recently introduced in the House of Representatives, would give states oversight over accreditation agencies.  of the act believe that the accreditation system is seriously broken and in need of significant reform.  express concern that this legislation would lead to lower accreditation standards, thereby providing less reputable institutions access to federal aid and reducing the amount of federal funding accredited institutions now receive.

In addition, just as you and I may experience sticker shock when buying our groceries, the cost to run higher education institutions is also increasing. Fitch analysts noted that besides an increased cost to recruit students, “” in higher education. Just up the road, in fact, , VCU’s Board of Visitors  to address inflation and state-mandated costs and an additional $8.7 million in reallocations as part of its 2026 budget.

Other institutions have addressed their enrollment declines by  and . A report from the Brookings Institution discussing future enrollments suggests that “.” President Hemphill has shared during his meetings with various groups his resolve to make 91��Ƭ�� more resilient rather than follow the path other institutions are taking to adapt to future challenges.

91��Ƭ�� managed the enrollment drops highlighted above through strategic reallocations, increases in scholarships, tuition and fee increases, support from the Commonwealth, and a higher recovery of overhead in our research. We did not reduce the number of faculty.  In fact, a decade ago we had 830 faculty and in Fall 2025, we had 924 faculty (not counting faculty from the medical campus). We also did not reduce the number of courses we offered. In particular, we increased course sections by 7% while enrollment dropped 10%. Though we were able to withstand past enrollment declines through these efforts, we require new strategies going forward.

We could ignore the “check engine” light, and we might be fine for a while. Indeed, it would be easier to do nothing and leave the “engine repair” to future leaders. Our proactive approach includes expanding our recruiting efforts (e.g., hiring four new regional recruiters, four new admissions counselors, and four new military/transfer recruiters and counselors), increasing faculty hiring, repositioning faculty development within the Center for Faculty Excellence, centralizing academic advising for on-campus students, expanding strategies to recruit and serve international students, reforming general education, and, of course, implementing Forward-Focused Digital Transformation.

By now, everyone knows that our enrollment drops have been offset by increases in online enrollments. Our seven-decade track record serving distance learners, our history of serving adult students, and the fact that innovation is in our DNA gives us the edge as we look to future.

We will continue our dialogue about 91��Ƭ��’s Forward-Focused Digital Transformation this semester through Monday Meetups, a campuswide, six-week series featuring targeted discussions about Michael Smith’s .  The series will open at noon on February 15 with a discussion among President Hemphill and select members of his cabinet. More details on these discussions, and others, will be forthcoming. We are committed to dialogue, constructive listening, and a shared understanding of the value of collaboration and communication.

In closing, while our academic engine slows down over the holiday, the opportunity to reflect and celebrate does not. Please join me in celebrating a few recent accomplishments:

• , Professor of Ocean and Earth Sciences, received the SCHEV Outstanding Faculty Award. Congratulations, Dr. Mulholland!
• Under the leadership of President Hemphill and Executive Vice President of Health Sciences Abuhammad, 91��Ƭ�� recently announced the creation of the Joan P. Brock Institute for Nutrition Science and Health.
• On December 13th, we awarded degrees to nearly 1,600 new Monarchs.
• For the first time ever, the Ellmer School of Nursing is admitting a new cohort of nursing students for the Spring semester.
• Our general education reform process continues to make great strides.

As we move forward, I am optimistic about our future. While disagreements will surface, the commitment and love we have for our institution will continue to ignite our academic engine.

Please know that I am grateful for the opportunity to create our future with each of you.

 

Regards,
 

Brian K. Payne, Ph.D.

Provost and Executive Vice President for Academic Affairs

Professor of Sociology and Criminal Justice